July 1, 1998 Special Presentation

by Kirstin Dow, Ph. D.

Assistant Professor, Department of Geography
University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC

Crying Wolf: Repeat Response to
Hurricane Evacuation Orders

SUMMARY

EIIP Virtual Library Online Presentation
Wednesday - July 1, 1998 - 12:00 Noon EDT

Crying Wolf: Repeat Response to Hurricane Evacuation Warnings

Special Presentation
by
Dr. Kirstin Dow
Associate Professor, Department of Geography
University of South Carolina at Columbia

The EIIP Virtual Library hosted Dr. Kirstin Dow, Associate Professor, Department of Geography, University of South Carolina at Columbia who presented research findings from a paper by Dr. Dow and Dr. Susan Cutter, co-author. "Crying Wolf: Repeat Response to Hurricane Evacuation Warnings" was supported by the Natural Hazards Information and Applications Center, Quick Response Grant Program. The project report is available at their home page. The paper is forthcoming in Coastal Management.

Very similar evacuations in 1996 prompted by predictions regarding hurricanes Bertha and Fran resulted in evacuations of the South Carolina coast. Both hurricanes made landfall in North Carolina. While the evacuations were warranted, the impact of false alarms on future evacuations, often referred to as the "crying wolf syndrome" (Breznitz 1984), is a widespread source of speculation and concern in the emergency management community. Repeated false alarms may reduce the credibility of warning information. Very little research has directly studied them and their impact on evacuation behavior.

Using South Carolina as the study area, Dr. Dow and Dr. Cutter examined the impact of "crying wolf" with three questions:

1. Were there differences in evacuation responses of residents for hurricanes Bertha and Fran?
2. Was there an action or a specific piece of information that convinced people to evacuate and did this vary between the two hurricane events?
3. What was the major source of "reliable" information influencing the decisions to evacuate and did this differ in the two hurricane events?

Dr. Dow's findings from responses to these questions also raise more general issues about the role of local disaster culture and the perceived relationships among residents, government officials at various levels, and information sources such as the Weather Channel.

DR. KIRSTIN DOW

Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Hazards Research Lab
University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC

Kirstin Dow is an Assistant Professor of Geography at the University of South Carolina. She received her Ph.D. from the Graduate School of geography at Clark University in 1996. Her research interests center on issues of vulnerability to environmental hazards. She has published articles and chapters on vulnerability to environmental changes and coastal storms, hazard perception, and coastal pollution. Currently she is involved in research projects on urban ecosystems and hazards and vulnerability in urban areas.

Dr. Kirstin Dow
Assistant Professor
Department of Geography and
Hazards Research Lab
University of South Carolina
Columbia, South Carolina 29208
tel: (803) 777-2482; fax: (803) 777-4972
email: [email protected]

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DR. SUSAN CUTTER

Professor and Department Chair, Department of Geography
Founding Director, Hazards Research Lab
University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC

Dr. Susan Cutter is professor of Geography and chair of the Department at the University of South Carolina. She also serves as the founding director of the Department 's Hazard Research Lab, a research and training center that integrates geographical information processing techniques with hazards management. Dr. Cutter has been working in the hazards field for more than twenty years and is a nationally recognized scholar in this area. She has authored seven books and more than 50 peer-reviewed articles. Her most recent books include: Living with Risk; Environmental Risks and Hazards, and a widely used textbook on the conservation of natural resources now in its 3rd edition. She is currently working on a book for the Joseph Henry/National Academy of Sciences press called American Hazardscapes which chronicles the pattern and frequency of disaster events and losses in the United States during the last twenty years.

Dr. Cutter serves on many national advisory committees including the Advisory Committee for the Natural Hazards Center in boulder, Colorado. She has provided expert advise to numerous governmental agencies in the hazards and environmental fields including NASA, FEMA and NSF. Prior to moving to South Carolina in 1993, Dr. Cutter spent 16 years on the faculty at Rutgers University.

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